ASTS Update: why the stock fell, and why Starlink’s politics are its opening

So, it’s been a few months since my last update, and nothing much has happened with the company so far. However, the stock has dropped significantly. Therefore, I thought it would be prudent to write something in the meantime about my thoughts on the company and its future, hopefully to steel some nerves.

If you trust me, feel free to skip this and just keep buying weekly. The stock is literally an even better value now. I’m actually looking into grabbing a loan from the bank to buy as many shares as possible, but we’ll see if they accept me with my student income :(

Part 1Why Have We Dropped?

I’ve talked about this ad nauseam in prior updates, but ASTS is pre-revenue, and like all pre-revenue stocks, it is HIGHLY susceptible to news (or the lack thereof) and interest rates.

Luckily for us! We’ve had no news, bad news (Blue Origin explosion/delay), AND skyrocketing interest rates.

I’m not going to get into the reasons why interest rates have risen (Trump), but they have.

It’s become increasingly clear that ASTS is part of a large index/basket of pre-revenue stocks that essentially trade in sync with each other based on macroeconomic variables.

Don’t believe me? Just look at $QBTS, $ASTS, $FLY, $KRKNF, and $RKLB over the past year.

Until ASTS starts generating actual operating revenue in the first half of 2027, you shouldn’t expect the stock to make any sense in terms of its direction or price movements. It’s going to continue being driven by macroeconomic conditions, speculation, and whatever news happens to come out.

Which is exactly why I keep telling everyone:

JUST BUY WEEKLY.

Overall, if interest rates continue to rise and we continue to have zero new news, you should expect the stock to trade flat or down.

Part 2The Future and Elon

In this section, I’m going to focus heavily on the Ukraine war and Elon’s inbred ass.

For the last four years, I’ve continued to claim that Elon’s megalomaniac obsession with being seen as the smartest man alive is eventually going to cost him his entire empire. And it’s starting to come true.

First came his acquisition of Twitter, followed by his tweets supporting white people in South Africa and trash-talking the EU. This was what made me push my father to sell all of our TSLA stock and move it into ASTS.

From then on, Elon continued to focus less and less on his companies and more on tweeting 24/7 about how black people and gays are ruining America.

Idk if you’re aware of this, but politicizing your brands in a heavily divided country is going to make 50% of the country hate you and refuse to buy your products. And it becomes even worse when the other 50% doesn’t believe in science and thinks your cars are for metrosexual hippies who drink lattes.

It’s safe to say that Elon cooked Tesla’s reputation and tanked the company. You can see it in its terrible stock returns over the last five years, as well as its declining revenue and profits.

Now, none of this would really matter for Starlink, ASTS’s main competitor…

IF ELON DIDN’T START FUCKING WITH OTHER COUNTRIES.

Let me be clear: this is GREAT for ASTS, but I also just want to dance on Elon’s grave a little bit.

His pretentious condescension and malevolence towards Ukraine, WHEN PEOPLE ARE LITERALLY PAYING FOR THE STARLINK SERVICES, have shown that no one, whether it’s Europeans, India, Japan, South America, etc., can trust Elon or the US military industry as a whole.

And why would this be a good thing for ASTS?

Because our saint Abel is not political. Not domestically, not internationally, and not even in the corporate world.

AST SpaceMobile is DESIGNED to be a neutral platform that businesses and countries alike can use while maintaining sovereignty over their own communications, without having to worry about the political whims of some billionaire.

Elon’s dick-measuring contest has created a MASSIVE opportunity for ASTS to become the leading satellite company partnering with both US and non-US cellular carriers and militaries.

And the proof already exists.

In the United States: Starlink is having to create its own mobile service because T-Mobile has dropped its exclusive contract and will most likely partner with ASTS soon, giving us de facto 100% control over the US market.

In Europe: ASTS has a joint venture with all the major European carriers to build a sovereign and secure European constellation that THEY CONTROL.

In Japan: ASTS has a joint venture to provide the entire country with connectivity as well.

And where’s Elon in all of this?

Nowhere to be seen, because his own cockiness has made everyone hate him.

Part 3Defense & Drones

Piggybacking off my previous point, no foreign military, ESPECIALLY Ukraine, wants its military operations to be controlled by one man, whether that’s cockroach Trump or Cockless Elon.

Therefore, I wholeheartedly expect these European and Japanese consumer businesses to eventually morph into defense contracts worth BILLIONS of dollars.

Currently, Starlink terminals are being used to fly drones in Ukraine to kill the Russian invaders, as well as to provide unjammable communications between the front lines and their HQ.

Not only are these terminals large and bulky, but they also cost hundreds of dollars.

You know what’s cheap and portable?

5G ANTENNAS.

And I’m not even hoping here. I can tell you with 100% certainty that once ASTS launches its satellites and achieves global coverage, ALL WORLD MILITARIES will be clamoring to partner with US to build drones with unjammable signals using 5G antennas that cost 350x less than Starlink terminals.

And the benefits don’t just stop at cost savings.

You also get MASSIVE weight savings by replacing a bulky Starlink terminal with a tiny 5G antenna. That weight can then be transitioned into either a bigger payload or longer range.

Or both.

Think about that for a second. You get a cheaper, lighter drone with satellite connectivity, while simultaneously reducing your dependence on a single politically unstable billionaire who can decide to fuck with your military operations whenever he feels like it.

The opportunity here is enormous, and I genuinely believe the defense side of ASTS could eventually become just as important as its consumer telecommunications business.

The point is, the future is bright. Even brighter than before, to be honest.

Yes, the current situation might look bad. Yes, the stock might continue trading flat or down for a while. But none of that changes why I invested in this company in the first place.

Keep holding. Keep buying weekly.

We’re all gonna be rich.